As seen in Fantasy Football Pro Forecast Magazine
By Matthew Falkow
The auction. It’s a frantic few hours where you’ll likely lose your voice and some hair. Many years ago, auctions were the original form of fantasy football. A group of guys would get together to bid out players and events over cigars and brandy. The industry has evolved into a juggernaut, where re-draft leagues are now the most common format. Keeper leagues add a little more strategy, but the auction is by far the most thrilling and enthralling draft. Get your calculator out and I’ll show you how to bring home the title.
With 11 opponents, $200 to spend and 20 roster spots to fill, you’ll have an average of $10 to spend per player. That number will heavily fluctuate. Here’s a good rule of thumb on how to break down your cash.
Quarterback – 20%
Running Back – 35%
Wide Receiver – 35%
Tight End – 7.5%
Kicker/Defense – 2.5%
Normally the running backs would have more money allocated, but the position is deeper this year while wide receiver has thinned out.
#1 PREPARATION IS CRUCIAL
You can’t walk into an auction holding just a pen and a cheat sheet. This one will require some prep work. Creating player tiers is very important. Make a list for your sleepers, rank your rookies, look at guys in their contract year, and have a list of familiar faces in new places. You should also look back at past years results. Take a look at players that are usually bid up, and look at trends with your friends. Create your 2010 dream team using 2009’s final bids. That should give you a reasonable barometer of the caliber player you can expect to grab. Looking back often helps you in the present. For example if you know two of your opponents love Deangelo Williams, you should see patterns in past bidding and know to avoid those players.
#2 DON’T OVERPAY FOR A KICKER OR DEFENSE
You have limited money to spend. If you bid more than $1 on a kicker you’ve already lost. Many a time fantasy footballers will overpay for defenses. Don’t be that guy. The NFL is pouring on more offense year after year, and every defense will have its off weeks. In most scoring systems last season, the Jets, Packers, Saints and Eagles made up the top defensive tier. The Jets will be at the top again, but everyone else is a crap shoot. Save your money, get a dollar defense and use waivers to play the matchups.
#3 THE EARLY BIRD DOESN’T ALWAYS CATCH THE WORM
Shooting your load early is a problem for all of us at one time or another. Once your draft starts and bids are flying around it’s easy to let the excitement get to you. Don’t panic when Drew Brees, Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning come off the board early. Sometimes you can go 20 players into a draft before you win a player. Patience is crucial. Don’t bid on players just because you feel left out. **This rule usually does not apply to the first overall player auctioned off. Always bid on the first player, as you may be able to get a bargain. Most of your opponents won’t want to be in an early cash hole, and you could walk away with a steal.
#4 TIER YOUR PLAYERS
Quarterback – 20%
The way I see it, we’re seven deep this year. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are the obvious no brainers. Nipping at their heels are Matt Schaub, Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. Those seven players are your auto starts regardless of matchup. After that there are lots of question marks. At this point in time you can’t feel comfortable with Jay Cutler or Donovan McNabb as your starting QB, and you’ll have to grab another middle tier QB to play matchups with. Bid on all of those top seven players, and don’t save more than a dollar or two for a backup. Nineteen percent of your cash should land you one of those top notch players.
Running Back – 35%
Unlike years past, the running back position has opened up and continues to grow. We can all thank the RBBC (running back by committee) philosophy for that. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice should be the highest priced players. All four of those guys have ups and downs. Certainly bid on them, but don’t spend half your cash on one player. I once did an auction where a team paid $140 of their $200 for Marshall Faulk. That team stunk and won just 3 games. Guys like Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells and LeSean McCoy will come much cheaper, and you may even get two of them for the price of one Adrian Peterson. Don’t overlook the rookies either. Charger RB Ryan Matthews will be an instant force, while Dexter McCluster, C.J. Spiller and Toby Gerhart will all immediately contribute.
Wide Receiver – 35%
Your team will likely consist of 5-7 wide receivers, meaning you’ll have a couple who aren’t so great. It’s important to grab at least one stud at this position. Spend the money and make sure you get a top tier guy like Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne. You’d be wise to add another top WR such as Calvin Johnson, Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin. With a big roster and FLEX spots to fill, you can’t afford to start a Brian Robiskie or Josh Reed. Pay the money, get a couple studs and you will flourish. Sleeper Alert: Fallen stars don’t usually perform, but one guy I love this season is Seahawk T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Seattle made significant offensive upgrades, Matt Hasselbeck is healthy and Housh should come pretty cheap.
Tight End – 7.5%
Historically a thin position, tight ends are on the rise. Vernon Davis and Dallas Clark are the cream of the crop, but there’s great value with Jason Witten, Brent Celek, Owen Daniels and Greg Olsen. You’re $10 average per player should land you a fine option, but feel free to pay extra for a top guy.
Kicker/Defense/Special Teams – 2.5%
Do not spend more than $1 on any kicker. They are truly a dime a dozen.
Defensively, the only sure thing in 2010 is the New York Jets. I don’t recommend paying more than a few bucks for defense, but if you do make sure it’s on the Jets. There are plenty of solid options and your best bet is to choose two squads and play the matchups each week.
#5 THE LAST PLAYER IN THE TOP TIER IS ALWAYS OVERPRICED
I’ve done the same 12 team auction league for the last 9 years. Every single season the ‘last of the best’ wins most overpriced. Case in point, last season Marques Colston sold for more money than Larry Fitzgerald. Why? Because when owners see a big drop off coming, they’ll panic and overpay to get ‘the last stud’. This is another reason why creating player tiers are crucial to your success. When it comes to that last stud, take a long hard look at the drop off between him and your next players down the list. You will overpay for that last stud, so make sure he’s worth it.
#6 KNOW YOUR COMPETITION
If your league is comprised of your boyhood buds, you should start to pick up some tells. Even if you’re playing with fresh faces, there are a couple regulars always present at an auction draft…
‘Slick Rick’
This guy bids on every player from Drew Brees to Frisman Jackson solely to drive up the price. He has no intention of winning these players, he just wants your wallet to dwindle. Spot him out and you’ll screw him. Back in 2005, the ‘Slick Rick’ in our draft was trying to drive up the price of WR Drew Bennett, who had broken out the year before. In what became a two man bidding war, I turned the tables by bowing out in the heat of the bid. I stuck him with Bennett for $76 of the $300 cap. It’s good to play this role at times, but be very careful not to take it too far.
‘The Scripter’
This guy is petrified to get a player not on his radar. He will have a tight list and wind up paying more than expected for the players he wants. He’ll land some of his targets, but sticking too tightly to his script will land him a lot of scrubs.
‘Overly Eager Guy’
He will bid on the first players auctioned off and spend 75% of his money in the first 10 minutes. Let him spend his cash early while he winces when you take his sleepers away because he’s out of cash.
‘The Balancer’
That would be you. Spot these people out. Keep notes from year to year, you’ll start to recognize tendencies in your opponents and benefit from them. Don’t spend all your cash too early, and prepare extensively.
Auctions are wild and crazy. More often than not, your original game plan will change several times during the course of the draft. When those gavels bang and bids are shouted out it’ll feel like you’re in the pit of the NYSE. Try to avoid boozing until your roster is filled, remember you need to count during this draft! Be sure to create your own player tiers, bring a calculator and saddle up for a wild ride.
